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Ph.D., Economics, University of California, Los Angeles
M.A., Economics, University of North Carolina
B.A., Psychology and Political Science, University of North Carolina
Managing Director, Econ One, Washington, DC, 2022 to present
Director, Berkeley Research Group, Washington, DC, 2014ā2022
Principal, Finance Scholars Group, Washington, DC , 2011-2014
Vice President, CapAnalysis LLC, Washington, DC, 2006-2011
Senior Associate, Analysis Group/Economics, New York, NY, 2001-2003
Research Fellow, University of California at Los Angeles, Center for International Science, Technology and Policy, 1994-2003
Manager, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, New York, NY, 2000-2001
Economist, Economic Analysis LLC, Century City, CA, 1998-2000
Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics, University of California at Los Angeles, 1998-2000
Visiting Professor of Economics, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand, 1997-1998
Director of Survey Research, Quantum Consulting, Inc., Berkeley, CA, 1989-1991
New Product Demand Forecast Manager, Pacific Telesis, San Ramon, CA, 1986-1989
The growing importance of cryptocurrency experts and those that understand blockchain technology along with cryptocurrency trading more broadly is being propelled by a need for these markets to continue advancing.Ā At the same time, there is an urgent need to resolve critical questions about the proper legal and public governance structures to achieve the best outcome for market participants, regulators, and legal systems.
This blog discusses how cryptocurrency experts with finance and economics expertise can assist clients on cryptocurrency matters, especially in disputes with substantial dollar amounts at stake and judicial outcomes uncertain.Ā Selecting the best expert prepared for these challenges will help clients prepare and reach more successful outcomes.Ā Specific ways that Econ One experts have assisted on antitrust, securities and cryptocurrency matters are described.
Antitrust economists are experts in understanding how markets work, or in some instances fail to work in delivering benefits to customers through lower prices, more choices and greater competition
Cryptocurrency technologies were founded on a principle of open, decentralized, peer-to-peer transacting giving it an aura of being a fast-moving, highly competitive market for new digital currencies and financial products.
But as a fellow Econ One expert has pointed out though, the decentralized nature of cryptocurrency for facilitating payments (or the variety of functions it serves) is in some ways surprisingly less decentralized than commonly understood.1
For example, Dr. Martos Vila showed that the majority of all blockchain transactions were verified by a small number of āminers.ā In 2015, five mining pool operators accounted for 40 percent of blockchain verifications.Ā In 2018, this percent increased to 71 percent.Ā Today it stands at 82 percent as shown in the figure below.
Applying the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (āHHIā) formula to these data, the HHI stands at 1,850 (above the threshold for being considered a highly concentrated market).2
A currently active cryptocurrency antitrust case involves a class action filed by investors alleging Defendants conspired to artificially inflate the price of bitcoin by flooding the market with Tether tokens, a stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar.3
A cryptocurrency stablecoin, like US dollar backed Tether (āUSDTā) is presumed to be backed by sufficient US dollars such that USDT holders could confidently redeem their stablecoins in return for the same amount of US dollars.Ā Instead, debased USDT (not fully backed by US dollars) was secretly created or āmintedā and injected into the market by Defendants through the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange (also allegedly controlled by Defendants).4Ā This gave the impression that bitcoin was worth far more than what it was.
Defendants were then able to exploit price arbitrage opportunities as bitcoin traded at a premium on Bitfinex relative to other cryptocurrency exchanges.Ā The case highlights not only the importance of market structure issues (USDT accounts for a large share of stablecoin cryptocurrencies), but the ability to achieve price impact leverage through deception.
Using a supposedly debased stablecoin, USDT, to manipulate the prices of cryptocurrency assets in the spot market has parallels to the LIBOR manipulation.5Ā The LIBOR quoted rates submitted by large banks were not backed by actual short-term interbank loan transactions, giving contributing banks leverage over market participants who were unaware of (and unable to verify in real time) that LIBOR was not tethered to true interbank loan costs and was being manipulated.
The misconduct described in the Tether-Bitfinex investor class action points to specific supply and demand mechanisms that were collusively manipulated by Defendants in violation of Sherman antitrust laws and that caused artificial market prices in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act.6
These types of allegations in other antitrust and commodity price manipulation cases have been examined by Econ One finance and economics experts using time-series financial econometric techniques to detect whether market prices were collusively set and/or made artificial.
A second major area of cryptocurrency law and regulation where Econ One finance and economics experts are playing an active role is the issue of whether or not cryptocurrencies are securities, and if so, how might and how much investors could have been harmed.
If a cryptocurrency is a security (like stocks or bonds issued by U.S. corporations), then the cryptocurrency must be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (āSECā) in order to be legally issued and traded in public markets, like an exchange.
Moreover, an exchange that lists a cryptocurrency for trading must itself be a registered exchange with the SEC if the cryptocurrency in question is a security.Ā As discussed in our previous blog on cryptocurrency investor class actions, investors trading an unregistered cryptocurrency could file potentially large loss claims, up to the full amount of the cryptocurrencyās market price.7
Two examples of currently active securities cases with ways experts can assist clients are reviewed.8
Ripple Labs operates a blockchain used for payment and settlements supported by the native coin āXRPā.9Ā The coinās price surged in late 2017,10 prompted in part by what a class of investors have alleged was a fraudulent scheme to inflate the market price.11Ā In early 2018, the market price of XRP quickly fell back from its peak value.Ā Ripple Labs and XRP are also the subject of an SEC enforcement action claiming it is an unregistered security, a claim which the investor class asserts in their class action as well.
The cases have curiously diverged on the securities definition question with consequential implications for how investor damages might be calculated.Ā In the enforcement action by the SEC, the judge ruled that XRP was indeed a security (unregistered) but only when purchased by institutional investors.Ā However, in the same case the judge ruled XRP was an (unregistered) security for other investors who purchased XRP on an open trading venue such as a digital exchange.12
In the investor class action, by contrast, the judge ruled in favor of plaintiffs by dismissing Defendantās motion that XRP was not a security under the Howey Test.13 The Howey Test is the current standard for deciding whether or not a financial instrument or asset is a security as discussed in our previous blog post about how cryptocurrency investor loss claims could quickly stack up.14
In the SEC case, the judge interpreted the absence of a sufficient connection between non-institutional investors and Ripple, the issuer of XRP, as indicating they had no investment contract with Ripple and thus for them, XRP was not a security.Ā The measurement of investor damages would therefore need to separate cryptocurrency transactions by investor types.
As discussed in a previous cryptocurrency blog, methods to estimate damages to investors by type of investor include multi-trader securities models that can be reliably and scientifically applied to cryptocurrency cases.15Ā These models can be empirically anchored to individual investor transactions tracked by exchanges through their emphasis on āknow your customer.āĀ More specifically, registering to trade on an exchange requires end-user specific information such as email addresses, wallet information and other identification proof that can be used for analyzing individual investor gains or losses from trading.
The Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange is currently the target of an SEC enforcement action and an investor class action alleging it operates as an unregistered securities exchange.16
According to its website, Coinbase is an exchange for trading cryptocurrencies.17Ā Coinbase provides digital assets and cryptocurrency traders with a Centralized Limit Order Book or āCLOBā platform on which traders can post bid and offer limit orders.18Ā A CLOB is one of the most common types of exchanges in the world, on which securities like stocks and derivatives like futures are typically traded.Ā Coinbase is the second largest cryptocurrency exchange after Binance.19
Coinbase, itself a publicly traded company whose shares are listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange, earns revenue primarily from transaction fees charged to members for executing trades on its platform.Ā As a publicly traded entity, Coinbase publishes quarterly and annual financial reports with the SEC known as 10-Q and 10-K reports.20Ā This type of financial reporting information can be extremely valuable in litigation and should not be overlooked as a source of data and information about a company.
Data discovery in the Coinbase litigation will no doubt produce large amounts of granular exchange trading data.Ā Experience on other financial exchange litigations suggests that a useful way to help manage large complex datasets is by establishing known, quantifiable reference points to ensure data is properly understood and ready for analysis.
For example, Coinbase SEC 10-Q and 10-K filings contain line items for the exchange revenues it generates as well as the customer segments from which these trading revenues are generated.Ā To the extent investors could claim as losses the trading fees incurred from trading on an unregistered exchange, their aggregate losses could be compared to Coinbaseās reported trading revenues over time, by segment and under different cryptocurrency market conditions to provide an upper bound on overcharges to investors.
Who is a cryptocurrency expert and what guidelines are there to follow for choosing the right expert?Ā This blog has highlighted the need for finance and economics experts in digital currency and those who understand cryptocurrency concepts amid the changing contours of cryptocurrency judicial outcomes and performing complex damages calculations using alternative tools and data.
Econ Oneās multidisciplinary approach draws on experience in financial and securities markets and the latest economics, statistics and finance research on cryptocurrency.Ā Econ Oneās finance and economics experts have the knowledge of behavioral relationships in financial markets and what types of behaviors could constitute violations of securities and/or antitrust laws.
Econ Oneās well-recognized antitrust expertise is deep and crosses the disciplines of finance and economics.Ā Of importance to the cryptocurrency industry, Econ One experts have achieved successful results for clients in markets including spot, derivatives, exchange and non-exchange traded instruments and markets from which benchmark prices are derived.
The Econ One team has economic, financial, computer science, and data analytics expertise that can be applied to complex cryptocurrency transactions including bitcoin transactions along with more generalized market data.Ā Econ One has provided assistance in evaluating large-scale datasets drawn from blockchain technology, cryptocurrency exchanges, and working with vendors who specialize in gathering these data and making it available in an accessible, user-friendly form.
[1] Marc Martos-Vila, ā3 Reasons Cryptocurrency May Raise Antitrust Issues,ā Law360, January 29, 2019.
[2] See U.S. Department of Justice Antitrust Division āHerfindahl-Hirschman Indexā at https://www.justice.gov/atr/herfindahl-hirschman-index
[3] See In re Tether and Bitfinex Crypto Asset Litigation, Case No. 19-cv-09236-KPF.
[4] See In re Tether and Bitfinex Crypto Asset Litigation Second Amended Consolidated Class Action Complaint, Ā¶141.
[5] For more on the LIBOR and benchmark manipulation in other markets, see Dr. Jeff Armstrong āHow Deep is Your Bench? Recent Benchmark Manipulation Antitrust Cases,ā March 5, 2024 at https://econone.com/resources/blogs/benchmark-manipulation/
[6] See In re Tether and Bitfinex Crypto Asset Litigation Second Amended Consolidated Class Action Complaint Ā¶Ā¶407 āĀ 443.
[7] See Dr. Jeff Armstrong āCryptocurrency Investor Claims Could Quickly Stack Up,ā July 9, 2024 at https://econone.com/es/resources/blogs/cryptocurrency-investor-claims-could-quickly-stack-up/
[8] At the time of this blog, Econ One experts have not been retained to work on either of these two cases.
[9] See https://www.ripple.com
[10] Source: CoinMarketCap at https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/xrp/
[11] See Consolidated First Amended Complaint filed on March 25, 2020 In re Ripple Labs Inc. Litigation
[12] See Order by U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres dated July 13, 2023 in Securities and Exchange Commission against Ripple Labs, Inc. et al.
[13] See Order on Motion for Summary Judgment by US District Judge Phyllis J. Hamilton dated June 20, 2024 In re Ripple Labs Inc. Litigation.Ā The judge also ruled case could not go forward as a class action.Ā Previously, the same judge had granted class certification.Ā See Order Granting Motion for Class Certification by US District Judge Phyllis J. Hamilton dated June 30, 2023 Vladi Zakinov, et al., v. Ripple Labs, Inc, et al.
[14] See Dr. Jeff Armstrong āCryptocurrency Investor Claims Could Quickly Stack Up,ā July 9, 2024 at https://econone.com/es/resources/blogs/cryptocurrency-investor-claims-could-quickly-stack-up/
[15] Op cit.
[16] See Securities and Exchange Commission against Coinbase, Inc. and Coinbase Global, Inc. 23-cv-04738 and Aceves et al. v. Coinbase Global, Inc., Coinbase Asset Management and Brian Armstrong, 24:cv-02663-MMC
[17] See https://www.coinbase.com/exchange
[18] See https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD
[19] Based on CoinMarketCap trading volume statistics.Ā See https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/
[20] As noted above, Coinbase operates a limit order trading platform.Ā According to Coinbaseās SEC filings, āTransaction revenue is based on transaction fees that are either a flat fee or a percentage of the value of each transaction.Ā For our consumer trading product, we also charge a spread to ensure that we are able to settle purchases and sales at the price we quote to customers.āĀ See Securities and Exchange Commission Form 10-K filed by Coinbase Global Inc for year 2023 at https://investor.coinbase.com/financials/sec-filings